Nubank – A Giant in the Making I Still Don’t Own
“Wealth is created by highly concentrated bets.”
But those bets need timing. And conviction. And valuation that skews the odds heavily in my favor.
Which brings me to Nubank — a company that has fascinated me for a long time. I’ve written about it. I’ve analyzed it. And I genuinely think it’s one of the most impressive fintech companies on the planet.
Yet I still don’t own it.
What Nubank Gets Right
Nubank is building something rare: a bank that people actually like. That alone makes it worth paying attention to. But beyond the branding and slick UI, there’s a real moat forming here:
Over 90 million customers across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.
Low-cost customer acquisition at scale, driven by viral adoption and word of mouth.
World-class investors: Sequoia Capital was in early. Berkshire Hathaway committed $750 million across pre-IPO and IPO rounds. These are not casual names.
And perhaps most importantly: the total addressable market is staggering. Latin America is still largely underbanked. Nubank is plugging directly into that inefficiency with a digital-first, low-fee, transparent offering — and doing so at scale.
This isn’t a “maybe someday” startup. It’s already a banking giant by user count. And yet there’s still so much runway ahead.
So Why Don’t I Own It?
Because the stock doesn’t yet fit the core of my strategy — not at this exact moment.
My investing approach is built around concentrated, high-conviction positions in asymmetric opportunities where the risk/reward skews extremely in my favor. That means not only liking a company — but entering at a price and moment where sentiment, valuation, and long-term fundamentals are temporarily misaligned.
Nubank has many of the ingredients I look for:
A huge market
A product that meets essential human needs (banking)
Operational excellence and scalability
Strong, aligned long-term backers
But the stock has already started to re-rate. The crowd is catching on. Valuation isn’t crazy — but it’s no longer a secret either. At this point, I’m not convinced that the reward-to-risk is heavily skewed enough to justify allocating significant capital right now.
What I’m Watching
Make no mistake: I want to own this business. It’s on my radar for the long haul.
Here’s what I’m tracking before making a move:
Profitability inflection points: When and how does the business move from scale-first to profit-focused?
New revenue layers: Credit, insurance, investments — how sticky are these services, and how fast are they monetized?
Valuation resets: I’m patient. If the market gives me a better entry, I’m ready.
Final Thoughts
There are companies I ignore.
There are companies I admire from a distance.
And then there are companies like Nubank — where I’ve done the work, believe in the vision, and am just waiting for the moment to align with the thesis.
This is one of those.
I’m not in yet. But I’ll be ready when the opportunity feels asymmetric enough to act.
Until then, I’ll keep watching — and writing.