A very transparent post presenting TLN’s debt with an overwhelming upside. You got me at “Power is becoming the new oil” and TLN is positioned at the center of that shift - w/ its “scalability, reliability, and control over its energy-to-compute chain.” I’m sold! 😊
Rock solid assets that take billions and years to build. Debt situation got out of hand due to relentless expansion, but I believe Wes pulls it off. He has to. He's put 2B into it. All he needs is some extra time. They have a 4B 7 year deal with Puerto Rico that should be approved soon. I mean it has to be approved, right? Otherwise PR won't have any LNG. Their Brazil plant is getting off the ground soon which will bring in some revenue. Wes wanted to take over the world. Too much too quickly. The stock is priced for bankruptcy and I am betting Wes pulls this off. The recovery will be glorious. Max port size I'd go is 5%. My average cost is $1.80. DYODD.
I happen to own some TLN that were purchased awhile ago and was curious to read how something that more than tripled in price can still be called an asymmetric play.
Lots of words but no numbers in this so-called report, so let’s put some meat here with numbers:
CEG is the poster company for DC upside and is trading at 4.85x NTM TEV/Revs and 22.33x TEV/EBITDA which is twice as much as mean and median of a group of 12 comparable energy utilities that trade at 4.72x NTM TEV/Revs and 11.68x NTM TEV/EBITDA.
Now, TLN numbers are: 9.94 x LTM and 6.49x NTM TEV/Revs.
On the TEV/EBITDA comp, it’s 39.84x LTM TEV/EBITDA and 14.94x NTM TEV/EBITDA, which means that EBITDA is protected to go from $531mm for FY25 to $1,416mm for FY26, and let’s remember that this is a utility and not NVDA. All numbers are from tikr.
If for any reason these highly aggressive projections are missed by a whisker, this projection will evaporate a lot of capital and TLN stock will become still way more expensive.
Author, although I comment you for the idea, if you would like to attract readers, please cut the amount of words for the same content by at least half and preferably more. This feels like 100% AI written, like ChatGPT. And virtually no usable numbers
Hi Johan, Thanks for your honest and constructive feedback. My analyses focus mainly on qualitative aspects but your point about the article’s length is fair, and I’ll think about how to improve that going forward.
Nice company, but unfortunately, its tripled since April. I’ll wait.
here you have another idea: fluence energy (FLNC)
Great mgmt, and phenomenal tailwinds. Quality business, been long since $120. Still think it’s worth a look!
A very transparent post presenting TLN’s debt with an overwhelming upside. You got me at “Power is becoming the new oil” and TLN is positioned at the center of that shift - w/ its “scalability, reliability, and control over its energy-to-compute chain.” I’m sold! 😊
LOL. I first bought this <100. You are terribly late. I'm take a bet on NFE now with 5% of portfolio.
https://open.substack.com/pub/fjresearch/p/outing-myself-my-biggest-investing?r=5fdf2w&utm_medium=ios
Yes, now is the time to enter I believe. <2 was safe...
From the outside looking in it seems there is some nice asymmetry there. Care to give me the quick pitch why you like it?
Rock solid assets that take billions and years to build. Debt situation got out of hand due to relentless expansion, but I believe Wes pulls it off. He has to. He's put 2B into it. All he needs is some extra time. They have a 4B 7 year deal with Puerto Rico that should be approved soon. I mean it has to be approved, right? Otherwise PR won't have any LNG. Their Brazil plant is getting off the ground soon which will bring in some revenue. Wes wanted to take over the world. Too much too quickly. The stock is priced for bankruptcy and I am betting Wes pulls this off. The recovery will be glorious. Max port size I'd go is 5%. My average cost is $1.80. DYODD.
Appreciate the response. I will look into it. I like the assets and that really no capex is required to get revenue flowing.
Annnndddd they dropped a Brazil update this morning. Dick Capital is unparalleled brotha. Love U.
I happen to own some TLN that were purchased awhile ago and was curious to read how something that more than tripled in price can still be called an asymmetric play.
Lots of words but no numbers in this so-called report, so let’s put some meat here with numbers:
CEG is the poster company for DC upside and is trading at 4.85x NTM TEV/Revs and 22.33x TEV/EBITDA which is twice as much as mean and median of a group of 12 comparable energy utilities that trade at 4.72x NTM TEV/Revs and 11.68x NTM TEV/EBITDA.
Now, TLN numbers are: 9.94 x LTM and 6.49x NTM TEV/Revs.
On the TEV/EBITDA comp, it’s 39.84x LTM TEV/EBITDA and 14.94x NTM TEV/EBITDA, which means that EBITDA is protected to go from $531mm for FY25 to $1,416mm for FY26, and let’s remember that this is a utility and not NVDA. All numbers are from tikr.
If for any reason these highly aggressive projections are missed by a whisker, this projection will evaporate a lot of capital and TLN stock will become still way more expensive.
Didn't Talen sell the Cumulus Data campus to AWS and enter into a PPA in March of 2024?
Author, although I comment you for the idea, if you would like to attract readers, please cut the amount of words for the same content by at least half and preferably more. This feels like 100% AI written, like ChatGPT. And virtually no usable numbers
Hi Johan, Thanks for your honest and constructive feedback. My analyses focus mainly on qualitative aspects but your point about the article’s length is fair, and I’ll think about how to improve that going forward.