Why I Chose Hims: A Mental Model for Outsized Returns

When I invest, I’m not just buying a stock — I’m placing a bet on a future that I believe is both inevitable and underappreciated. My goal is clear: find asymmetric opportunities where the downside is limited, and the upside is explosive. In short, I’m hunting for 10x returns in businesses that solve fundamental human needs. Hims & Hers Health (ticker: HIMS) is one of those rare bets.

The Framework: Investing in Civilization’s Cornerstones

My investment style centers around companies that operate in the infrastructure of human civilization — energy, banking, health insurance, and medicine. These are non-negotiable pillars of society. No matter the macro environment, no matter where we are in the economic cycle, these industries don’t just survive — they persist, evolve, and grow.

Medicine, in particular, is both essential and deeply under-optimized. And within medicine, access — not innovation — is often the bottleneck. That’s where Hims comes in.

Why Hims? The Thought Process

I studied dozens of businesses before locking in on Hims. I compared risk-reward profiles across industries and looked at companies with promising tech, scalable operations, and charismatic narratives. But many had fragile moats, unclear paths to profitability, or dependency on hype cycles. Hims stood apart.

Here’s the mental model:

• Asymmetric Optionality: The company is barely scratching the surface of its total addressable market. It’s operating in a space that is only now beginning to shift online — men’s and women’s health, mental health, dermatology, and potentially GLP-1 weight loss. Each vertical could be a billion-dollar business in itself.

• Undervalued Execution: Hims is already profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis. That’s rare in a consumer health tech company still in its early growth phase. The brand is sticky, the subscription model is elegant, and churn is low.

• Cultural Tailwinds: There’s a generational shift happening. Younger consumers are prioritizing convenience, privacy, and digital-first experiences — especially in healthcare. Hims doesn’t just ride this wave; it defines it.

• High Quality Risk: Yes, there’s risk — competition, regulation, execution. But these are risks I want to take. Risks rooted in scaling a business, not in validating its very existence. That’s a key difference. I avoid existential risk; I embrace operational risk.

Comparing the Field

I looked at small- and mid-cap fintechs, niche SaaS platforms, and even some energy tech plays. Many had surface-level appeal but failed my essential-need filter. Others had TAM but not traction. And most had either an uncertain path to profitability or no margin of safety.

Hims? It checked all my boxes. It offers a product people genuinely need, on a platform that is improving access, at a price point that consumers are willing to pay — and with economics that already make sense.

The Goal: A 10x Return in the Mid-Term

This isn’t a meme stock trade. This is a high-conviction, long-duration investment. I’m not looking for 30% in a year — I’m looking for 1000% over the next six. The beauty of Hims is that it could become the first true digital-first healthcare brand that scales across categories and demographics. If it succeeds, it becomes a category-defining company — a modern Procter & Gamble of personal health.

Final Thoughts

I don’t invest based on vibes. I invest based on essential human behaviors and business models that can compound value. Hims is a bet on healthcare finally catching up to the digital age. It’s a bet on a leadership team that understands brand, execution, and scale. And most importantly, it’s a bet on a future where people demand better, faster, and more discreet access to the medicine they need.

And if I’m right — the reward will be well worth the risk.